DOOMSDAY CLOCK

A place to engage extended discussions of things that come up on the ttbrown.com website. Anything goes here, as long as it's somehow pertinent to the subject(s) at hand.
twigsnapper
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DOOMSDAY CLOCK

Post by twigsnapper »

There, Now that I have your attention.

In 1945 such a concept was considered and in 1947 a newsletter started circulating amongst nuclear physicists. It grew into a group of people interested in sharing information about how dangerous the world was becoming. The idea of "minutes to midnight" caught on and has been used ever since. Now of course the worry has expanded to other things but one must not forget the original worry. I read on a related forum that every nuclear missile ever aimed at the United States is still aimed at that target. Which could possibily be entirely true. Then we have the suitcase on a mule, and who knows where that might be aimed.

Since Dr. Brown was concerned about this clock. (I can vouch for that personally) I thought I would introduce it into the conversation. In 1947 the people involved set the clock for seven minutes to midnight in 1947.

Anybody know what it is today?

And how many times it has changed? ( Sometimes getting as far away as 17 minutes to midnight, I think, when the Soviet Union Collapsed) What were other changes that set it backward? What might be done now?

I just thought that it was important to get into the mindset of the late forties and the Doomsday Clock said it all. twigsnapper
twigsnapper
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original crazy Ivan

Post by twigsnapper »

Oh, one last thought,

http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=214

I like to dub the "original "Crazy Ivan"

Anybody out there even know about this? twigsnapper
kevin.b
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Post by kevin.b »

21 dec 2012,
Mayan long count.
http://www.divinecosmos.com/
Kevin
fibonacci is king
LongboardLOVELY
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DOOMSDAY CLOCK is at FIVE MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT, SET TODAY

Post by LongboardLOVELY »

twigsnapper wrote:
Anybody know what it is today?
5 minutes to Midnight
twigsnapper wrote: And how many times it has changed? ( Sometimes getting as far away as 17 minutes to midnight, I think, when the Soviet Union Collapsed) What were other changes that set it backward? What might be done now?
Eighteen times. It was 17 minutes to Midnight when in 1991 the United States and the former Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

Did you mention it because today marks the first day in FIVE years (since 2002) that clock's hands have moved?
JANUARY 17, 2007 AT 1430 HRS GMT
The BAS noted in a press release on January the 12th Doomsday clock was to be moved forward to highlight the "Most Perilous Period Since Hiroshima and Nagasaki." The concern is over Iran and North Korea's escalating nuclear ambition as well as the things going on between Russia and the US, AND new pressure from climate change for expanded civilian nuclear power that could increase proliferation risks.
twigsnapper wrote: I just thought that it was important to get into the mindset of the late forties and the Doomsday Clock said it all. twigsnapper
ABSOLUTELY. It does say it all. What do you foresee, sir?

LongboardLOVELY
Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction. ~ Albert Einstein
twigsnapper
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natures laws

Post by twigsnapper »

Hello my dear,

I would like to believe that I was totally empowered to pick my own future BUT,you know there was a moment when I truly discovered that nature had rules of its own and just because I did not understand them mattered not a wit, and things did not always go in my direction.

Perhaps you have done this. I was young and brash and thought I knew everything. Spaghetti was something new to me and so when someone said ...... "Hello, I'll wager that if you hold that dry spaghetti at the ends that you can not break it in two!" Now I just looked at him. What kind of a fool did he think I was OF COURSE I could snap that puny little strand and so went about attempting it. He won his wager because you see there is a law of nature that says spaghetti held thus snaps in MORE than two pieces ALWAYS.
You can not snap a strand of spaghetti in two. It won't do it.

Now I will leave WHY it won't do it. It was enough to me to realize that I had run up against something that could not be violated. It was a preset rule. Period.

And thats what we are dealing with sometimes about the future. Perhaps no matter how strong and wise we think we are there is a preset natural law that will take over. I would like to see us all living happily and productively and thats what I would choose. But I know also that there is another force at work here which will determine what may happen.

I do not think that we are helpless in a failing situation. But we definitely are being called upon to perform to the best of our abilities. And time is short.

Don't know why I thought of spahgetti. Not sure that even applies. Must be hungry. twigsnapper
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Post by flowperson »

Hmmm...of course it is a fact that if you soak dry semolina pasta in water for only a relatively short while, it becomes softer, much more pliable, and sometimes quite difficult to tear apart when it is still "al dente". I think the pasta's still soaking.

Years ago it was soon seen that the evolution of technologies closely mirrors our own as a species. With enough time one always tends to mirror the other inerrantly. It's just the way that our corner of the universe is put together. Here, symmetries and harmonies seem to just happen. The dynamics of the universal fabrics promote it automatically. But...when you tear the fabrics as we have....

The same with nuclear technology. We're all playing games with it when it defines the foundations of what that divine force we sense might be. We play games at our collective peril, when just one loss in a mass of harmonies and symmetries can bring it all down if we lose our basic care for the Creation. Twigsnapper... great wisdom in your last post !

flow.... 8)
Dancing is better than marching
Radomir
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Finite and infinite games

Post by Radomir »

So much to say...where to start?

First, thanks Mr. Twigsnapper for getting our attention with this topic and initial content. Not to mention your highly instructuve and humorous pasta-bending metaphor.

I was not aware of that Crazy Ivan bomb, which was mind-numbing to read about for so many reasons. Nor was I aware of that "damn interesting" site. (I found another interesting article there that reminded me of Josephine:
http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=766 )

Yes these are serious times. But I want to raise a flag about where we put our attention and how it defines our reality.

Considering the destructive power of atomic weapons, and the often warlike and irrational nature of human behavior throughout recorded history it is understandable that people might begin to focus on a doomsday clock metaphor to describe and highlight the potential peril of total planetary self-destruction.

Similarly, one may add criteria to that list of doomsday timing indicators that monitor and give weighted factors to different types of world events such as the "fall" of Soviet Russia, or more recent events in the middle east. Thus the hands move forward or back based on an assumed level of current risk, status, resulting in an estimated likelihood of doom.

On the face of it, pretty hopeless and depressing stuff.

But I'm writing to offer an alternative perspective, and counsel a few strategies that I hope others in the group might find helpful:
1. investigate who currently is the "authority" determining where the doomsday clock is set, and according to what criteria
2. ask what the results are in defining the frame in such a manner / who benefits and how from such a message being sent out
3. consider alternative ways of defining the frame that might be more productive

I submit that after the fall of Soviet Russia, it was debatable whether the world was actually "safer" enough to move the clock backwards. Suddenly we had all these nuclear weapons and fissile material without a central governing body to control or maintain their infrastructure. This opened up opportunities for sale to other interests, or mistakes due to process failure or material decrepitude, or impulsive nuclear weaponry use by formerly Soviet states. From this perspective, the world might actually have been "safer" during the cold war stalemate than it has been since. So where does that leave us in terms of the perceived validity of whatever criteria they are using to define moving the hands on the clock?

Now of course many things have happened since the "end" of the Cold War, including some significant movement towards deactivation and disarmarment. I also consider every day that passes without use of a nuclear weapon to be a plus. Nevertheless, if the hands have been moved forward due to current events, is this cause for alarm?

How we choose to use this information being presented to us plays a large part in defining our reality for us.

For me, focusing on a doomsday scenario puts me in a very dead-end place, no pun intended. It breeds a sense of helplessness, futility and fear. Fear serves well certain interests and is an incredibly powerful means of governing any population. (If I have to go any further into that reality, and how it relates to the past several years in the US for instance, then we'll need to open a different thread.) This mindset is one of a finite game.

Consider an alternative perspective or frame. One that I found personally quite liberating, positive and generative. I ran across this book, which I give my strongest recommendation:

_Finite and Infinite Games_ by James P. Carse.

There are at least two kinds of games.
One could be called finite, the other infinite.

The finite game is played for the purpose of winning,
an infinite game for the purpose of continuing the play,
...and bringing as many persons as possible into the play.

Finite players play within boundaries;
infinite players play with boundaries.
I may feel that I cannot do anything substantive to affect the hands on the doomsday clock, or any similarly distressing "news." I may feel stuck. But what I can do is change the frame, and thus my perception, response and subsequent actions with regards to how I take in information and how I decide to respond. From what context. And by acting from that alternative context and frame, I affect reality not just for myself, but for anyone I contact. As any parent knows, kids resonate with whatever signal you send out. So does life.

Which game do you think TTB was playing?
Last edited by Radomir on Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Elizabeth Helen Drake
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games people play

Post by Elizabeth Helen Drake »

From my standpoint Radomir, definitely the infinite game.

Actually I have always felt that even , or maybe ESPECIALLY, we here on the forum are involved in a sort of cosmic volley ball game ... where the object is simply to keep the ball in the air. allow as many players to participate as will join the game. Its a magic sort of volleyball you see. The object isn't to slam it down on the othersides court and declare yourself the winner because then ... to the detriment of all, the game stops and has to be started all over again ... The object is to keep that magical interaction going .... the players are meant to enjoy the game .... to enjoy the act of passing it back and forth ... sometimes softly and sometimes driven ..... but always aloft.

Thats the sort of game that I believe Townsend Brown was playing. Elizabeth
Paul S.
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Re: Finite and infinite games

Post by Paul S. »

Radomir wrote: _Finite and Infinite Games_ by James P. Carse.
The finite game is played for the purpose of winning, an infinite game for the purpose of continuing the play, ...and bringing as many persons as possible into the play.

Finite players play within boundaries;
infinite players play with boundaries.
Which game do you think TTB was playing?
What a positively MARVELOUS proposition to contemplate! I love it!

My thought: TTB was definitely playing the "infinite" game, which is just one of the attitudinal qualities that separates him from the rest of mainstream society.

However, I will also add that, given the unique nature of his "game," and the volatile and precious subject matter around which the exercise was constructed (I hesitate to use the word "game" again here), his ability during HIS lifetime to "bring as many persons as possible into the play..." was rather limited. Though, as Elizabeth points out, the means at our disposal now -- this planetary nervous system called "the Internet" may ---as the second part of the "games" axiom puts it -- push that boundary some.

But the part "continuing the play...." Well, what does it look like we're all doing here??

Thanks for that post.

--PS
Paul Schatzkin
aka "The Perfesser"
"At some point we have to deal with the facts, not what we want to believe is true." -- Jack Bauer
Elizabeth Helen Drake
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frames

Post by Elizabeth Helen Drake »

The word "frame" has been coming up quite a bit lately and when that happens I have to pay attention. I'm with Paul, Radomir, ... an exquisite thought regarding your own personal framework.

I think that you will find that the characters in Pauls book all found themselves faced with the prospect of remaining somehow in a particular frame which they alone actually defined.

My impression is thought that this was not a forced issue but a chosen one. Dr. Brown chose his frame, Linda hers, Morgan his and especially I think Josephine. But you are right! Each person then and each person now has the ability to make his/her "frame of experience" into what they wish it to be and by doing that they effect countless others around them.

Picking Josephine as an example. Look at the many choices that I am sure she made during her life.

Each move, by itself, was an excercise I am sure in difficulty but she chose to make it joy. So much so that her family never sensed disappointment or regret only adventure and hopefulness. Josephine was the master of her frame, and in being that, I believe she was the rock that kept a brilliant man together. Elizabeth
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FRAME

Post by Trickfox »

Speaking of "frames" as in "Frame of reference" does the word "field" and "tensor" come into play here? aren't we trying to define something isotropic and isomorphic ?

Trickfox
The psychopropulsier (as pointed out in the book The Good-bye man by Linda Brown and Jan Lofton) is a Quantum entanglement project under development using Quantum Junctions. Join us at http://www.Peeteelab.com
twigsnapper
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have you seen?

Post by twigsnapper »

Paul,

Have you ever seen a movie by the name of "The Battle of Algiers?"
You should probably see it if possible. Its been around for years.
Too bad, I don't believe President Bush has bothered to see it.


twigsnapper
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Battle of Algiers

Post by Paul S. »

OK, I'll add it to the top of the Netflix queue right away. FYI, we've got "2010" on the coffee table now, per your earlier recommendation. Will probably look at that tomorrow night.

The reference to Algiers is noted: there has been quite a bit of commentary of late that the situation in Iraq is more analogous to that conflict than Vietnam. Except, of course, that W is hardly DeGaulle.

BTW, Ann asks me to say "hi."

--PS
Paul Schatzkin
aka "The Perfesser"
"At some point we have to deal with the facts, not what we want to believe is true." -- Jack Bauer
twigsnapper
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missing antiquities

Post by twigsnapper »

Another thought that you might be interested in. I don't know if you happened to catch a recent Charlie Rose show. One of his guests was a fine gentleman by the rather odd name of donny george. (He was the head of the Museum which was looted in April of 2003. Perhaps you remember that story.) You would be very interested in his take on the three groups he figured were responsible for the looting.

The first group he said were "rabble off the street" who stole computers and telephones and even the switches off the walls.

The second group came prepared with glass cutters which they left behind and they seemed to be slightly more interested in things that could be resold, more jewelry.

The third group he said managed to go into the heart of the vault in the basement of the museum and did not touch anything EXCEPT ancient cylinders and oddly some of the ancient examples of the first bricks ever made. He did not seem to know how or when that third group got that material.

Mr. Georges' take on the situation in Baghdad now is that the intellectuals have all been forced to leave or been killed, most of the professors are gone ... anyone interested in the safety of the museum is effectively out of there so it is quite a heartache for him. He finally took his family and has come to the United States and is affiliated with a museum in New York. Check out his interview. There was an airing last night but it may have been rebroadcast.

The protection of that particular museum was supposed to be number two on the US Armys list but when Mr. George called for security and assistance he was told that the soldiers had no orders to protect the museum. They did however manage to get stationed in front of the Oil Ministry and the national Bank. Figures. twigsnapper

Generally speaking its also a good idea to remind yourself to stay on top and in the middle also, while facing in the same direction that horse is going, my experience.
Paul S.
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Re: missing antiquities

Post by Paul S. »

twigsnapper wrote:Generally speaking its also a good idea to remind yourself to stay on top and in the middle also, while facing in the same direction that horse is going, my experience.
"Keep the horse between me and the ground" is how I think I heard one horsewoman put it.

I'll see if I can find that Charlie Rose show. I catch your drift...

--PS
Paul Schatzkin
aka "The Perfesser"
"At some point we have to deal with the facts, not what we want to believe is true." -- Jack Bauer
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